Do natural resource windfalls, such as those arising from the discovery of giant oil fields, increase the risk of internal armed conflict? This column argues that giant oil field discoveries, which are largely down to chance, significantly increase the incidence of conflict. This is especially so in countries with recent histories of political violence, where locals may have little to gain from such discoveries

Recent developments in oil markets and the global economy have, once again, triggered concerns about the impact of oil price shocks around the world. This column wonders whether the fuss is really necessary. It presents evidence of relatively small negative effects of oil price increases.

It has been widely argued that natural-resource wealth is a curse that leads to corrupt politicians, closed and illiberal societies, and defunct economies. This column presents new evidence on the political impacts of oil wealth. It argues that the effects depend on geology and history, shedding light on the recent uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.

Ghana is about to become a major oil producer. The country’s newfound oil is expected to bring in many billions of dollars, changing the face of its economy. Ghana is the first African country where a major oil discovery is greeted by a well-functioning, albeit young, democracy. This column outlines how it can avoid the resource curse and take full advantage of this historic opportunity.

Since discovering oil in 1990, Equatorial Guinea has experienced massive growth that multiplied its GDP per capita many times over. But its oil wealth has not improved the well being of most of its inhabitants. This column argues that such resources belong to the citizenry under international law, and unelected governments that expropriate natural wealth are violating human rights.

The price of oil plummeted during the global crisis, but has since started to climb back. Which way will the oil price go next? This column presents a new risk-adjusted method for forecasting oil prices using the futures market. It suggests that oil prices may climb back to $100 by early next year – a level that may dampen consumption spending.

Bank balance sheets in oil-exporting economies have been hard hit recently. This column provides the first empirical evidence linking oil prices to bank performance in such economies. It suggests that easily observed oil prices could inform macro-prudential regulation in these countries and mitigate pro-cyclical bank lending.

Gas prices are a product of supply and demand. This column attributes recent gas price increases to stagnant oil supplies and growing global demand from emerging Asian economies – not speculators. Additional shocks to the US refining capacity further tightened gas prices in the US. These forces will likely keep gas prices high for the foreseeable future.

The resource curse has stymied development in numerous oil-rich economies. This column introduces the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and explains how transparency by firms investing in resource-rich countries might help alleviate the curse.

Norwegians enjoy a very high standard of living. Is it due to their oil? This column describes the country’s impressive economic development during the twentieth century and highlights lessons from Norway’s management of its oil wealth.