Economists often disagree on China’s prospects. This column provides the results from a survey of top UK-based macroeconomists by the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM). It turns out that three quarters of the experts believe that China’s annual growth rate will be less than 6% over the next ten years or so. But the panel is divided on whether the slowdown will have a significant impact on the UK economy.
Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha, Wouter den Haan, Friday, November 27, 2015 - 00:00
Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Giacomo Calzolari, Alberto Franco Pozzolo, Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 00:00
Small and medium-sized enterprises are supposed to be the key to growth, everywhere. These enterprises are risky, and when they are so important to the well-being of an economy, someone must bear the risk of funding them. This column argues that there is a real need for policymakers to focus on how we finance SMEs, as getting the institutions and structures right can pay dividends in the long run.
Carlo Favero, Vincenzo Galasso, Sunday, October 18, 2015 - 00:00
Demographic trends in Europe do not support empirically the secular stagnation hypothesis. Our evidence shows that the age structure of population generates less long-term growth but positive real rates. Policies for growth become very important. We assess the relevance of the demographic structure for the choice between macro adjustements and structural reforms. We show that middle aged and elderly individuals have a more negative view of reforms, competitiveness and globalization than young. Our results suggest that older countries -- in terms of share of elderly people -- should lean more towards macroeconomic adjustments, whereas younger nations will be more supportive of structural reforms.
Anton Cheremukhin, Mikhail Golosov, Sergei Guriev, Aleh Tsyvinski, Wednesday, September 2, 2015 - 00:00
Economists tend to focus on reforms that came after 1979 when explaining China’s soaring economic growth. This column argues that they shouldn’t. Mao’s policies also had a huge effect and should not be ignored. Economists and policymakers would do well to look further back in history. A long-term perspective might also help them bust a few myths along the way.
Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel Waggoner, Tao Zha, Saturday, August 1, 2015 - 00:00
China’s spectacular growth over the 2000s has slowed since 2013. The driving force behind the country’s growth was investment, so the key to understanding the slowdown lies in understanding what sustained investment in the past. This column shows how a preferential credit policy promoting heavy industrialisation explains the trends and cycles in China’s macroeconomy over the past two decades. This policy was not without negative consequences, particularly in terms of the distortions it introduced for business finance. Going forward, China needs to focus on creating the right incentives for banks to make loans to small productive businesses.
Jaume Ventura, Hans-Joachim Voth, Monday, July 27, 2015 - 00:00
Is debt really that bad? This column looks at the towering debts, rapid tax hikes, and constant state of war that led to Britain’s Industrial Revolution, showing that the devil is in the detail when assessing sovereign debt. When we consider the dangers of debt in today’s world, we should keep an eye on its potential benefits as well.
Uri Dadush, Friday, March 13, 2015 - 00:00
Alan J Auerbach, Kevin Hassett, Tuesday, March 3, 2015 - 00:00
Jan van Ours, Friday, February 27, 2015 - 00:00
Jason Furman, Friday, February 20, 2015 - 00:00
Michael Huberman, Christopher M. Meissner, Kim Oosterlinck, Friday, February 6, 2015 - 00:00
Stephen J. Terry, Saturday, January 17, 2015 - 00:00
Enrico Minelli, Friday, December 19, 2014 - 00:00
Brian Pinto, Wednesday, December 17, 2014 - 00:00
Lant Pritchett, Lawrence H. Summers, Thursday, December 11, 2014 - 00:00
Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Paolo Mauro, Ke Wang, Tuesday, October 7, 2014 - 00:00
Giang Ho, Paolo Mauro, Friday, September 12, 2014 - 00:00
Alan S. Blinder, Mark Watson, Thursday, September 4, 2014 - 00:00
Ejaz Ghani, Sunday, August 17, 2014 - 00:00
Just like the East Asian Tigers, the Lions of Africa are now growing much faster than the developed economies. However, this column shows that the growth escalators in Africa are different than in East Asia. The East Asian Tigers benefitted from a rapidly expanding manufacturing sector. The African Lions are benefitting from increases in productivity in the service sector, while the agricultural sector remains unproductive.
Marco Annunziata, Saturday, August 16, 2014 - 00:00
Africa has generated a lot of enthusiasm lately. The cynical view of the continent as a hopeless basket case has been replaced by the lofty narrative of Africa Rising. This column argues that Africa’s progress is impressive, and there is more to the story than a commodity boom. But Africa is at a crossroads. The opportunities are huge, but the road ahead is long, and will require persistent and patient effort from policymakers as well as business.